The indices have falling intermediate tops and bottoms, and therefore, are in major (i.e. long-term ) downtrends. This means we are still in a bear market.
The market’s long-term trend will turn up if the Sensex closes above its intermediate top of 17,736, the Nifty above 5,300, and the CNX Midcap above 7,192.
Global indices are also in major downtrends, but only a handful have managed to remain above their last intermediate bottoms. The Chinese and then the Indian indices were the first to breach their last intermediate bottoms, and the Dow followed shortly thereafter. The Dow will enter a bull market if it closes above its last intermediate top at 13,200 during its next intermediate uptrend.
The Sensex breached 13,050 on Tuesday to go back into an intermediate downtrend. The Nifty and CNX Midcap followed suit by falling below 3,896 and 5,072, respectively. The July 11 highs are the levels to be crossed for the market to get back into an intermediate uptrend. These are 14,066 for the Sensex, 4,216 for the Nifty, and 5,406 for the CNX Midcap. A decline below 12,514 for the Sensex will mean a continuing intermediate downtrend.
Global markets also started rallying in the second half of the week, but only the Nasdaq Composite has managed to get into an intermediate uptrend until now. However, the rallies look a little more persistent than they had been in recent times, and a global intermediate uptrend appears to be a definite possibility now. Most major international markets are still in intermediate downtrends. The Dow will enter an uptrend if it stabilises above 11,550.
From
Glimmer of hope in volatile markets
by Deepak Mohoni in Economic Times
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/Investors_Guide/Glimmer_of_hope_in_volatile_markets/articleshow/3257095.cms
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
No comments:
Post a Comment